Long-term Variant Scenario Forecasts
[Updated Mar 9th, 2021, based on data up to Mar 06th,2021 ]
The following scenarios have been simulated considering the combinations of the following (motivated by the MIDAS Scenario Modeling Hub)
- High Vaccination - Assumes 35 million courses administered per month in the future, and efficacy 95% after two doses, 90% after one dose. Vaccine acceptance in any priority group is around 80-90%.
- Low Vaccines - Assumes 20 million courses administered per month in the future, and efficacy 75% after two doses, 50% after one dose. Vaccine acceptance in any priority group is around 50%.
- Moderate NPI - Precautions stepped down to 50% of Feb levels gradually over 5 months (100% would mean no NPI).
- Low NPI - Precautions stepped down to 80% of Feb levels gradually over 5 months.
Assumes that the new strain is 1.5x transmissible than existing one and immunity from one strain applies to other strains.
